I made a set of predictions for 2008, just before we entered the new year.  Unfortunately, it’s time to see how I did.  In the interest of keeping your attention, I’ll list abbreviated versions here.  The original post has them in their full glory.

At the time, I came up with 8 predictions, so we’ll allocate a maximum of 12.5 points to each one, if I absolutely nailed the prediction.

• A true leader will emerge to set the tone for the industry.  Review:  Vanceinfo continued to grow, as did several of my other candidates, but nobody has really emerged as the undisputed leader.  Score:  0
• Some companies will get serious about winning western business.  Review:  iSoftStone really stepped up with their appointment of Bruce Ferland as president of North American and European Operations.  Many of the other companies actually scaled back their efforts in the U.S.  Score:  6
• Consolidation.  Review:  There were no big moves among the tier-one players, although I heard that there was some M&A with smaller companies.  For this one to matter, I really needed a couple of the big names to come together.  Score:  0
• New Players.  Review:  They’re not really new, in terms of being founded in 2008, but both XBOSoft and Long Circle made great strides this year.  Score:  5
• More IPO’s.  Review:  Nope.  Given the post offering performance of Longtop Financial (LFT) and VanceInfo (NYSE: VIT), I guess that this one is no surprise.  Score:  0
• Disappointing Performance post IPO.  Review:  See above  Score:  12.5
• The Yuan will appreciate.  Review:  According to the website that I use for currency conversions, the RMB/US$ ratio on 2008.01.01 was 7.29.  On 2008.12.15, the ratio was 6.85.  It’s not huge appreciation, but the dollar is weaker relative to the yuan, and I need all of the points that I can get.  Score:  10
• Product safety concerns will not spill over into software outourcing.  Review:  Well, the lead paint on toys thing didn’t really have much impact.  Neither did the melamine in milk.  I think that I’m good on this one.  Score:  12.5

Let’s see, if my cell phone calculator is correct that gives me a total score of 46.

Not so good, hunh?  I both underestimated the severity of the global slowdown, and overestimated the progress that Chinese vendors would make this year.  Sigh…

I’ll resist the urge to make predictions for 2009.  With the current global economic uncertainty, about all that I can say is, “We’ll see.”

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