Since my 2008 predictions were so utterly wrong, I decided to take a pass on the opportunity to embarrass myself again for 2009.  Instead, I’ll let other’s embarrass themselves.

The IAOP has five predictions:

• Outsourcing will stay closer to home (they suggest that China will be challenged by “closer-to-home” locations)
• Global uncertainties will create outsourcing volatility
• Professional expertise will be valued
• Strategic companies will prosper
• Social responsibility and green will be outsourcing themes

Alsbridge CEO Ben Trowbridge gives us thirteen more trends for 2009 (I edited some of these for space):

• Organizations will shift strategy, taking a longer-term view of sourcing options instead of a one-time decision on which functions to outsource or move to a client-owned offshore center.
• Security concerns will grow. The range of offshore locations to consider for outsourcing will expand due to security concerns in India.
• Currency changes will be positive for the buyer. The cost of outsourcing will continue to be attractive and become slightly cheaper due to currency and GDP shifts in low-cost locations.
• Inflation of outsourcing costs in India will effectively stop. Employee wages in India will stabilize and remain steady, keeping the cost of delivering services from rising.
• Work will be streamlined. Systems designed to structure work and reduce facilities’ costs by utilizing remote workers will improve and evolve further, allowing low-cost U.S. locations to be tapped for work that needs to stay inside the U.S.
• The complexity of the outsourcing decision will grow, driven by the twin concerns of economics and security.
• Time will become a new factor in sourcing decisions. Budget concerns will drive a need for faster sourcing processes, using streamlined steps confirmed by quantitative pricing data. In some cases, this may be a sole-source process.
• Systems and process standardization will continue to commoditize work and allow many more vendors to be considered for niche outsourcing needs. The process of managing a larger group of vendors will be key.
• Provider selection is changing. It will take greater effort to cut the field to four finalists who receive the request for proposal (RFP).
• Mergers and acquisitions will continue. EDS was the big name in play last year. Who will it be this year?
• Human resources outsourcing will struggle as vendors sort through the complexity of client needs and their own requirement to standardize.
• The offshore mix in infrastructure will grow as vendors improve their capability to remotely manage centralized computer centers.
• Chief Information Officers will search for the right mix of value, cost and service quality. This will drive reevaluation of the mix of what is outsourced.

There, I have my first post of the year and I don’t need to worry about looking like an idiot when 2009 draws to a close.  OK, maybe I do, but that’s another story.

Happy New Year!

Technorati Tags:  China, China Outsourcing